【Beihang Economics and Business Academic Forum】
Title:Container slot booking forecasting for intercontinental liner shipping services
Lecturer: Prof.Meng Qiang,Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at National University of Singapore (NUS) and the co-director of NUS-LTA Transportation Centre.
Time:2017.7.11,16:00-17:30 pm
Location:A716
Invited by Prof. Liu Tianliang
Abstract: Intercontinental shipping services link the trades between different continents in the global logistic system. During the container slot booking period before the start of a new ship voyage in an intercontinental service, the shipping company would like to estimate the actual amounts of container slot bookings that will be transported through the long-haul legs of the service. This is because the shipping demands across the long-haul legs significantly affect the profitability of the whole service. This paper thus investigates how to forecast the container slot booking amount through the long haul legs of the intercontinental shipping service based on the historical container slot booking data. An integrated forecasting model is developed in this paper. This model is able to combine the predictions from different forecasting models, including piecewise liner regression model, autoregressive model and artificial neural network model, by calculating weighted average of these three models. This model is also able to work in a rolling horizon manner by dynamically adjusting their weights to reflect the up-to-date trend for the container shipping demand. Test results on the real-case container slot booking data from several intercontinental services show the satisfactory forecasting precision of this model.
About the lecturer:Dr. Qiang Mengis a Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at National University of Singapore (NUS) and the co-director of NUS-LTA Transportation Centre. He received his PhD from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in 2000. His research focuses include transportation network modeling and optimization, shipping and intermodal freight transportation network analysis, and quantitative risk assessment of transport operations. He has published more than 140 articles on the leading transportation and logistics journals, with the SCI H-index rate of 31. He is an Associate Editor of Transportation Research Part B, Journal of Transportation Engineering (ASCE) and Transportation Research Part E. He has clinched a number of research awards and prizes, including Changjiang Scholar Chair Professor by the Ministry of Education of PR China in 2017, the Outstanding Alumni Award of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in 2016, Dean’s Chair in Faculty of Engineering at NUS in 2015, the 13thWorld Conference on Transportation Research (WCTR) Society Prize for the best paper (2013), Best Paper Award for Methodological Development in the 9thEASTS (East Asia Society for Transportation Studies) International Conference (2011), Best Paper Award of AHB40 - Highway Capacity and Quality of Service Committee - inthe 90thTRB Annual Meeting (2011) andSingapore MOT (Ministry of Transportation) Minister’s Innovation Award 2009.
